Stefon Diggs has been an absolute force for Josh Allen and the Bills to start 2022, racking up 20 catches worth 270 yards. However, his receiving yards prop for Buffalo's Week 3 divisional tilt with Miami still sits below 80. Hammer it now before it rises.
We’re already into Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season and the player prop bets aren’t slowing down.
Today, I’m taking two wide receivers who could have massive days despite mid-level receiving totals while fading a back in an offense that might not feed him 20 touches despite a good matchup.
Keep reading as I break it all down below.
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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The Miami Dolphins have the offense to push the Buffalo Bills who will likely have to play a full four quarters on Sunday.
However, starting corner Xavien Howard (DNP on Wednesday) is in danger of missing the battle and wasn’t 100% in Week 2 when Rashod Bateman beat him for over 90 yards. Add in Byron Jones (PUP) on the sideline and this once elite secondary is as weak as possible. That’s great news for the Bills’ best outside receiver in Stefon Diggs.
Through seven quarters of football, Diggs has roasted two solid secondaries in the Rams and Titans for 270 yards on 20 catches (24 targets). His 34.3% target share trails only Cooper Kupp and A.J. Brown and he's gaining yards at every level as nine of his catches are less than 10 yards while five of them have been gains of 30+ yards.
This is a massive matchup advantage in a high-total game where the Miami offense could keep Josh Allen aggressive. Buffalo is passing at 60% of the time and has been leading for the majority of its snaps.
Diggs caught 12 balls for 148 yards in an abbreviate outing last week and his receiving yard total opened shorter than it closed last week.
Stefon Diggs Prop: Over 79.5 receiving yards (-110)
Jacksonville’s Christian Kirk got paid in the offseason and Doug Pederson and the Jaguars are getting him the ball — and it’s been easy for the receiver.
Kirk has at least six catches and 78 yards in both games this year and the separation he is getting is unreal which makes getting him the ball a very easy decision for a much-improved Trevor Lawrence.
Per Next Gen Stats, Kirk has seen 18 targets and zero of them have been in a tight window of less than one yard of separation. He also sits 13th in aDOT, has a 26.5% target share, and could have had a bigger game last week if the Colts had shown up.
Christian Kirk has been targeted 18 times this season. None were tight windows (< 1 yard of separation). Christian Kirk, NFL Ranks (min. 15 targets): ???? Tight Window Rate: 0% (1st) ???? Air Yards/Target: 10.3 (13th)@Jaguars | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/YrqzW9yqVN
His receiving total has jumped just three yards from last week and although this is a tough matchup on paper, the Chargers are allowing 150 yards per game to opposing receivers and Davante Adams went 10/141/1 vs. this unit in Week 1.
Christian Kirk Prop: Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110)
Under new coach Kevin O’Connell, Dalvin Cook has not impressed on the ground. He has 107 yards on 26 carries (4.01 ypc) but has failed to gain yards after contact with a 1.6 yards per carry after first contact.
With the Vikings running 3-WR personnel more this season as opposed to Mike Zimmer’s heavier sets, Cook is struggling to get things going. Last week had a lot to do with game script and O’Connell has stated that he needs to get Cook in rhythm more but 17.5 is still too high for me.
The coach wanting to get Cook in rhythm isn’t necessarily a vote for higher usage. Cook is not a great fit for this offense and Alex Mattison is also getting carries. Justin Jefferson also didn’t have a great game in Week 2 and will be the focal point for this Week 3 offense.
Last year, the Rams (O’Connell’s offense) had an 18-carry or more performance just twice over the first 12 weeks and then went run heavy once Matthew Stafford was not 100% and seemingly throwing two interceptions per game.
Detroit is also giving up chunks of yards per play (5.9 to be exact) and 5.1 yards allowed per carry. Cook could certainly have a high-output, low-volume performance like Miles Sanders’ 13-carry, 96-yard showing in Week 1.
Red-zone carries also play a factor here as Mattison has four of the RB carries inside the 20-yard line while O'Connell has passed the ball at a 75% clip in the red zone to start the season.
O’Connell could also get the ball in his hands through the passing game as he has 11 targets through two games which are tied for the sixth most in football for running backs. THE BLITZ projects Cook for 15.56 carries.
Dalvin Cook Prop: Under 17.5 carries (-120)
Season to date: 8-7 SU, -0.19 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
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